Daves criteria for the sample selection seem completely reasonable to me a case being unexplained is an objective fact. Speaking of animals, theres of course the dog whistle or similar techniques that could certainly be used to make a dog run into a forest to make its master follow him, and a variety of more sophisticated technologies currently under development, mainly to be used as forms of crowd control. Speaking of bizarre and inexplicable, these books and documentaries describe a growing number of cases (now in the low thousands) of people going missing or being found under strange circumstances. It may even be an intelligence-type operation, specifically, which means that there could be an effort to avoid statistical detection or to obscure the true motivation by introducing false leads and using all kinds of misdirection, if not outright destruction of evidence, intimidation, or assassination. This is another strong profile point. If there is someone out there with some kind of tech doing this, the tech clearly should involve remote brain or full-body scan capability (to ascertain hidden health issues or intelligence), perception altering, and memory editing. This is why it seems very suspicious to me that in Missing 411 cases, the majority of people who are found alive have amnesia and only a minority reports something strange happening. Some of these factors are inherently unusual, requiring at the very least a sudden psychotic break or a chain of bad decisions, while others are unusual through the rate at which they correlate with these cases, and yet others seem utterly impossible all by themselves. For example, in a random sample of a thousand normal missing persons cases, how often do people go missing with a dog, in contrast to how often that happens in a sample of a thousand Missing 411 cases? After all, if there is an intelligent perpetrator behind at least some of these cases, they can be smart enough not to kidnap and kill too many people. I have never heard of a single case in the history of my country of anyone going missing mysteriously while picking mushrooms. Maybe a comparison of natural features of these places can yield interesting correlations. 2019. Finally, the seemingly most ridiculous element of all of these stories, the stool sample, is a clear sign of organization. Without that, theres no point in speculating any further. Or that there was stasis involved. If a person disappeared from a place like a pub, then the perpetrators were either lying in wait on the location, possibly cooperating with whoever is operating the establishment, or they were again following the target person beforehand and waited for him to go to a social event. Clothing really is tricky. All 185 cases fit a narrowly defined profile that was refined after researching thousands of missing person reports; these cases are the most difficult, defy common sense, challenge conventional wisdom and remain . In other words, youd expect these two things to correlate. It would be an annoyingly good crime, however, as it is very difficult to prove such crime for the above-mentioned reasons. In theory, both may only be a product of sheer randomness, like number of pirates in the world inversely correlating to CO2 emissions, or they may reflect a statistical artifact caused by how the sample was selected, like unwittingly going by an ordered list. Id wager that afternoon is the time during which forests see the highest levels of traffic. Finally, if you think about it, its important to understand that human clothing can be confusing to a highly intelligent, highly scientifically advanced species who has studied us for ages. If the person was seen, say, falling of a cliff, then that would be an explanation, just like it should be easier to find someone when youd seen where exactly they entered the forest, at what speed, and in what state of mind. Director Michael DeGrazier Writers Michael DeGrazier David Paulides Stars David Paulides Beverly Messick Rob Messick Missing 411- North America and Beyond, 2013. There is a chance that the person will not want to admit a bout of irrational behavior, but they should not have amnesia, unless a blow to the head, extreme psychological trauma, or very specific chemicals were involved. The further questions are those of exact methodology. The. Profile points that make people more likely to go missing or to not be found in general (bad weather, dogs and trackers failing to track, etc.) Or Spock. What I will try to do is use my social science education and research methodology expertise to try to bring some clarity into how all of the variables in these cases seem to be connected. All 185 cases fit a narrowly defined profile that was refined after researching thousands of missing person reports; these cases are the most difficult, defy common sense, challenge conventional wisdom and remain . Forests being bigger and unmarked could certainly be an issue, just like the number and type of local predators or overall crime rates in the area, and maybe thats something that should be statistically analyzed using data that I dont have at the moment (comparing forests where people go missing versus those where they dont go missing based on these criteria). Similarly, some traits like high intelligence, excellent physical condition, or relevant expertise and preparation are inherently suspicious, even if they happen in statistically insignificant numbers. This is the second documentary of Missing 411, and by far the better of the two. The mysterious part is how the bodies got to where they were found. Given that some cases indicate third-party involvement (like the inside-out clothing, children unable to undress themselves, or clean socks while traveling miles), the latter option, however unlikely and disconcerting, must be considered. Thats definitely the weirdest scenario. This means that this profile point is only interesting in combination with other data points that involve positive evidence. Disorientation happened to my son and I four years ago in Germany's Teutoburg Forest. Missing 411: The Hunted is based on the book by Paulides, which documents 185 cases of missing peoples from four different countries. This is why it seems very suspicious to me that in Missing 411 cases, the majority of people who are found alive have amnesia and only a minority reports something strange happening. In at least some cases, a wrong search area could have been set up or the search effort could have been otherwise insufficient (or plain unlucky). Maybe more younger and older people get missing more often in general, or specifically, maybe kids always get missing more often when theyre watched by relatives other than their parents. Im really only qualified to speculate on the first question. There are cases where a wolf man-type being was described as the one who kidnapped the target, they could be easily able to control dogs and likely to respect them more than humans, and if the shapeshifting into dogs is on the table, they could get around any human settlements, including urban areas, undetected. It would either mean that Jon Oliver was even more right than he thought when he was describing the current sorry state of how especially coroners (the ones without any actual medical training) operate in the United States, or it would mean that some of the Missing 411 profile points actually function as a cause of or significant contributing factor to the sudden adult death syndrome. The ability of any perpetrator to remotely confuse, lure, or in some sense mind control targeted people would also be consistent with the victims leaving essential items behind it would just be an induced brain fart. Its also unusual that it seems that its young children who much more often tend to remember and report anything, as opposed to adults. If it keeps happening again and again, what youve got is a systemic anomaly, an anomaly on which you will keep getting more data, an anomaly that you can try to predict. Obviously, bad weather happening while a person is lost should also mean higher chance of them dying of exposure, but also limit the distance that the lost person can travel. This type of account would go some way toward explaining the seemingly missing failure rate of the perpetrators, as these would be the cases where the predators let the captured prey go, or when their traps, even though advanced, failed. Apart from this (the fact that a personal attack is a logical fallacy, not a counterargument), if Dave incorrectly interprets some data point or a causal relation, its an error, not a crime. Well, apart from the stories of people who got lost suddenly in familiar territory, but only temporarily and with full memory of the event, which means that they didnt qualify as Missing 411 cases. In case youve never heard of this series of books written by an American ex-detective David Paulides, I believe theres eight of them at the moment, plus two documentary movies. If anyone whos unable to travel many miles is found many miles away, especially if it is in a very short amount of time, its extremely suspicious. Conversely, a person out to dispose of a corpse in water clearly would take that care. This one focuses a lot on hunters, people that typically know what they're doing in the woods / wouldn't do something stupid resulting in their disappearance. James McGrogan - Missing 411. Not to sound too alien-abductiony, but some type of medical examination or procedure would make the most sense. Of course, that says nothing about who these aliens are, only that theyre organized. Heck, theres even a consensus in the cryptid community, as far as I can tell, that while bigfoot-type cryptids find themselves ethically speaking on the same range as humans (including benevolence), dogmen and skinwalkers are almost always strictly malevolent, or at least much more aggressive and dangerous. Given that brain damage is almost never involved even in the cases where the Missing 411 subjects were found dead, theres no good explanation for high incidence of amnesia. [1] [2] Early life and career For starters, it keeps changing, on a whim, basically, so you have to constantly keep guessing how it works. Also, there are virtually no big predators in the Czech Republic that would kill a man. With the emphasis on may. Furthermore, introducing it in the first place or doing things like turning it inside out could screw with pattern recognition AI that was designed to target us looking a particular way. Dogs arent machines, which inevitably means they must have some sort of rate of error, some better and worse days, while scent can be affected by environmental conditions. Paulides shares several perplexing mysteries and investigations. While the possibility of pure fear killing a person is medically speaking speculative at best, extreme fear can certainly cause a lethal heart attack in a person with a heart that is in a less than stellar condition. How odd is enough? Especially if its only about taking advantage of naturally forming bad weather, as that would then maintain its normal, statistically insignificant rate of incidence. It makes for good storytelling, and beyond that, its important to understand that everyone has a bias. Worldbuilder, magister, change catalyst. Thats roughly a bit odd to the fourth power. Which sort of plays into the possibility that Dave often mentions of people dying essentially of fear, like when being kidnapped and burned by what may seem like aliens, even if it were human agents. Perhaps the only type of thing that Dave tends to do thats somewhat less than ideal is that in his descriptions of the cases, he sometimes omits facts that point toward more mundane explanations. You may have noticed that in all that speculation, I may have cracked the case at most in the sense of creating some structural microtears in it. As I was listening to various cryptid-related podcasts and shows, I have also encountered mentions of a possible conflict raging between bigfoot and dogmen/skinwalkers. A good enough guess should allow you to try to force and maximize the coincidence by removing all normal ways of the expected manipulation happening naturally. If the person was targeted at home and lured out, it is virtually certain that that person was followed beforehand. People make errors. When we go do that with my family, we go to a place we know, or with a guide who knows the local forest like their backyard. Which brings me to some espionage-related implications. I could also go on and on, but I think this is more than enough for now. And yes, I also rewatched Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency, obviously. However, this only calls for a more thorough screening process for the cases to control for these possibilities. The main two cases involving multiple odd coincidences are the disappearance of Dennis Martin and the death of Elisa Lam. Somebody called the profiling that Daves doing cherry-picking, and Dave said that yeah, thats exactly what hes doing. While you could come across a person randomly in the forest, it is much harder to be able to single people out, avoid being killed by our weapons (or leaving the dead to be found by us), and cover ones tracks. Scott Schumacher Without giving much away, the first messages that you put on the screen I believe are the thread you meant to weave into this movie..so that it could "shake the tree" so to speak. The comparison actually needs to be made between the Missing 411 sample and whats normal for national park visitors in general, as well as it needs to be made between the Missing 411 sample and a control sample of non-Missing 411 missing people, ideally controlled by location (park vs. rural vs. urban). Not only that, the burn marks were treated by an unidentifiable ointment and the cause of death was a massive heart attack. PG-13. The latter option seems especially plausible, since in none of the recorded calls were any of the victims able to relay any coherent, useful information. Scientists do this all the time. Documentary 2019 1 hr 37 min. Theres bound to be a normal percentage of cases in which the trackers simply fail to locate evidence that is present in the area. As a person from the Czech Republic, where picking mushrooms is a national pastime more so than in most other countries, this is puzzling to me. For starters, in all of the cases where dogs couldnt pick up the scent and then the search was unsuccessful, the direction of causality could be that dogs not finding the scent should decrease the chance to find the missing person. Which brings me to some practical reasons why you would undress a person that you have kidnapped. The latter possibility would imply that even if there werent significantly many of them within the sample in comparison to all people or all park visitors, there may be a specific, several centuries-old genetic reason or personal grudge involved. The dog returning back safely also makes sense in the context of human or other intelligent predation, since when someone is interested in a particular person as a target, they dont have any obvious reason to also hurt their dog (other than to make it run into the forest as a distraction). Also, in case you make a mistake and blow your cover, humans will be far less likely to torch a natural treasure to get you. Or at least not any more mysteriously than provably falling off a cliff, and thats the only case I could find. Ignoring mind control for now (which is technically doable with advanced enough technology that we are already developing), someone who can remotely scan or edit brains can probably also stop someones heart with a more advanced version of taser. As for how useful chasing coincidences is as an intentional profile point, Dave allegedly was told that he should expect unbelievable coincidences on his quest to figure out this mystery. How do you keep getting bodies into water without it being seen, ever? Specifically, either cryptids known as dogmen, or some version of skinwalkers who can shapeshift into canine forms. A high-level analysis of patterns behind these strange disappearances. Missing 411 cases are a colloquial classification that documents missing person cases that fit a number of criteria: The disappearance occurred in a national park, rural area, or large reserve of public land. Beyond a mere lack of explanation, Paulides has put together a profile which includes a specific list of factors, most of which tend to be present in all of these cases. Pretty much the only non-exotic explanations are that the person was carried, or put into a vehicle and driven or flown away, and there were cases of people too heavy to be carried by anything normal, while there tend to be no tracks or noises indicating either of these options taking place. There should be different amounts of people walking through the forests at different times of day, possibly doing different things in the forest at different times of day. Even if the name was selected purely on the basis of bad feelings, it may indicate that dangerous terrain, gases, radiation, or infrasound can be found in the area. On the internet. I await suggestions. What I would say does seem obviously wrong are for example the cases of water-related disappearances and deaths in urban areas, where the young white male students figure in almost all of them. On this count, I would very much like Dave to publish exact tables showing how significant (meaning frequent) each of the correlating factors is in the Missing 411 sample of cases, ideally in comparison to tables of what is normal for a representative sample of normal missing persons cases. If theres an intelligent perpetrator behind any Missing 411 disappearances, they are likely to know when to lie in wait for people at the times and dates when theres the most opportunity. The reason why foul play was suspected in this case was that there were burn marks found on the body, which has happened in at least one Missing 411 urban case that Im aware of. Naturally, without any explanation as to how he got there. In any event, I believe that Dave is correctly focusing on the cases where the most inexplicable travel speeds or distances took place. Malevolent gods could theoretically use it to mislead us, but I bet that malevolent gods have a less perfect awareness and more of a self-centered, narrow viewpoint on things. Not wholly impossible, but an extreme leap nonetheless. Sure, it would be somewhat difficult to hide the act of construction, but again, even your standard government can pull that off. Missing 411: The Hunted is based on the book by Paulides, which documents 185 cases of missing peoples from four different countries. Like to teleport. Remember, Occams razor does not exclude something I dont understand happened. This is another strong profile point, given that the most likely explanations are the body being dropped there to be found, or perhaps a temporal displacement. Like his idea of a probability-based engine many macroscopic physical laws are only aggregates of chaotic movements and interactions going on at the subatomic level.
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